The Future We Refuse to Face: Why Businesses Must Embrace Outcome-Based Thinking Now

In recent weeks, I’ve found myself in deep discussions about a topic that seems to haunt nearly every intelligent strategy conversation: our collective inability to commit to long-term thinking. The troubling part? It's not due to a lack of knowledge, resources, or talent. It's because we keep making short-term decisions under the illusion that we're solving long-term problems. The reality is that we’re not.

Climate change is the clearest, most damning example of this failure. We've had the knowledge, the resources, and the technological capability to act decisively for over two decades. And yet, here we are—on the precipice of irreversible disaster. Why? Because leaders have consistently opted for short-term wins over sustainable action. Unfortunately, this thinking isn’t limited to governments. It permeates business at every level, from small startups to multinational corporations. And the consequences will be more than environmental—they'll be economic, ethical, and existential.

The Problem: Executive Tunnel Vision

The issue isn’t strategy. Most organisations have compelling strategic plans. The issue is execution—and more precisely, the focus of that execution. Boards and executives too often make decisions based on immediate returns, quarterly results, or the optics of action rather than real, outcome-driven change.

It’s understandable. There are always stakeholders to appease, targets to meet, and competitors breathing down your neck. But the result is a systemic reluctance to invest in long-term outcomes unless they’re tied to immediate profitability.

In the business world, this looks like:

• Delaying critical infrastructure updates until it’s too late.

• Ignoring people development because the ROI isn’t visible on this quarter’s spreadsheet.

• Abandoning sustainability initiatives when budgets tighten.

• Making hiring and firing decisions based on headcount optics instead of workforce capability.

And ironically, these short-term actions often create greater long-term costs. It's a cycle of avoidable crisis—built entirely on willful neglect.

The Case for Outcome Thinking

Outcome thinking is not about predictions. It's about direction. It's about anchoring your decisions in the results you want to create in the long term and being ruthlessly aligned with that path.

Let’s take Patagonia as an example. When they chose to give away ownership to a trust to fight climate change, it wasn’t a short-term PR stunt—it was a decision rooted in long-term outcome thinking. The company aligned its purpose with the future it wants to shape. That decision didn't just make waves in the headlines; it realigned the company’s entire operational focus with sustainability.

Or consider Unilever under Paul Polman’s leadership. By moving away from quarterly reporting and shifting the business toward long-term sustainable growth, Polman didn’t just break norms—he demonstrated that ethical, long-term strategy could still deliver profit. It required courage. It required re-educating investors and reinforcing the message internally and externally. But it worked.

Why It Matters Now More Than Ever

We are living in what futurist Alex Steffen calls a "decision-rich, time-poor" moment. The number of critical decisions businesses must make about the future is increasing exponentially. And yet, the time we have to make those decisions—and act on them meaningfully—is shrinking.

Take AI. Take climate change. Take global supply chain instability. Each of these presents both a profound threat and an opportunity. Businesses that wait to see what happens will be too late. Those that act now with foresight will define the next generation of industry.

Outcome thinking doesn’t mean abandoning profitability. It means defining success beyond immediate financials. It’s about:

• Creating resilient systems, not reactive ones.

• Building cultures that thrive through change.

• Designing products and services that will still be needed (and ethical) 10 years from now.

• Taking responsibility—not just for shareholders, but for employees, communities, and the planet.

The Communication Gap

One of the reasons outcome thinking fails to take hold is that we don't communicate it well. Leaders often assume the vision is obvious—but to most of the organisation, it’s not. If you're going to change the future, people need to understand why you're doing it, what you're aiming for, and what success looks like along the way.

Communication must be consistent, courageous, and clear. Not just slogans. Not just charts in quarterly updates. It needs to be embedded into every conversation, every performance review, every budget approval. You can’t communicate future outcomes if you don’t talk about the future—loudly and often.

Embedding Future-Based Thinking in Your Business

So, how do we do it? How do we move from lip service to action? Here are five practical steps to start embedding outcome thinking in your business:

1. Create Outcome Anchors

Identify three to five long-term outcomes your organisation must achieve. These should be non-negotiable and guide decision-making at every level. Examples include "net-zero emissions by 2035," or "a workforce 70% upskilled for AI-readiness by 2030."

2. Redesign KPIs

Most KPIs reinforce short-term thinking. Audit your KPIs and shift them to reflect progress toward long-term outcomes. That might mean measuring the success of mentorship programs, not just turnover rates. Or the environmental cost per product, not just margin.

3. Reward Courageous Decisions

Recognise and reward those who make decisions in alignment with long-term goals—even if they don’t result in immediate wins. This builds trust and signals that outcome thinking is more than talk.

4. Educate Stakeholders

Bring investors, board members, and employees along for the journey. Teach them the value of long-term thinking. Share real business cases. Be transparent about the risks and the potential. Equip them to be advocates, not just spectators.

5. Build Feedback Loops

Future-based strategies can feel intangible. Regular check-ins—using metrics that measure progress toward those future goals—make it real. Treat outcome thinking as a muscle: measure it, stretch it, refine it.

The Human Cost of Short-Termism

Let’s not ignore what this means for people. When businesses only value short-term outcomes, employees become transactional. Loyalty, creativity, and trust erode. People sense when their work is only as good as this month’s results.

In contrast, outcome-driven organisations create meaning. They give people something to believe in and build toward. That matters—especially in a world where people want purpose and where burnout is at an all-time high. Your people want to build something that lasts. So let them.

A Final Thought

This isn’t about optimism. It’s about responsibility. The future will happen—whether we prepare for it or not. Businesses must become the architects of that future, not the accidental bystanders.

And yes, it will be hard. Yes, it may cost more today. Yes, it might require explaining difficult truths to people who want easy answers. But if we fail to make these hard choices now, we will find ourselves in futures that we actively failed to prevent—futures we knew were coming.

Future-based outcome thinking isn’t a luxury. It’s not a buzzword. It’s the minimum standard for responsible leadership in a collapsing timeline.

So here’s the challenge I’ve been putting to others—and now to you:

Stop making decisions only for now. Start making them for the future you’re willing to be accountable for.

Not in theory. In practice.

Starting now.